⛏️ Three rare earth mineral companies are not attractively priced or good businesses

UUUU — Energy Fuels

UUUU is a mature operation with expansion. They have revenue. Their mill in Utah is small. They are affected by uranium spot. Their rare earth elements revenue is more than a year away. It was 3.2 in April last year. Anything could happen in the short-term. Xi and Trump could announce a deal. This could take a 50% haircut and still be up 200% over a year and half. It is a pure speculative narrative hype play with negative margin of safety.

LEU — Centrus

LEU is a foreign-supplied enrichment reseller dependent on Russia and France. More than half of what Centrus expects to deliver comes from Russia's TENEX. This is terrible international dependency. Retail is financing speculative long-term expensive buildouts with ATM purchases. They face dilution with convertible bonds. So today's shareholder is buying a foreign-supplied resale business and financing the construction of the hoped-for domestic producer when the underlying makes very little profit. This is about the worst possible place for a retail investor.

You absorb:

• Construction and schedule risk through 2029.
• Dependence on Russian supply until domestic capacity exists.
• Margin pressure when purchased SWU (work required to enrich uranium) reprices faster than customer contracts.
• Dilution from the ATM and potential convertible-note settlement.
• A valuation of roughly 45.5× forward earnings and 150× operating EBITDA.
• Government funding risk, including the September 30 cascade decision.

USAR — USA Rare Earth

Almost no relevant revenue, execution failures, extreme dilution, lawsuit on moat, heavy cash burn, dependent on government support instead of economics, pure reflexivity on US-China rare earth headlines.

Tuesday after Labor Day weekend

/CL is up 1% and Iran announced they are increasing control of the Strait. Retaliation tariffs coming from Canada tomorrow. Last inflation print before the FOMC meeting on Friday. I'm just going to hold off for a moment. Good luck all.